RCP8.5 with temperature feedback

Looking at the RCP8.5 scenario, I realised there is no climate feedback in the economic GDP model: a rising temperature does not seem to have an effect or limitation on the CO2 emissions.

Below is the calculated warming effect of the RCP scenario’s:

This is the reported negative effect on GDP, according to Richard Tol (Richard S. J. Tol, The Economic Effects of Climate Change, Journal of Economic Perspectives — Volume 23, Number 2 — Spring 2009 — Pages 29–51, figure 1):

Now to make the effect really worst case, I use the over the top red line scenario of -10% GDP per degree

Here is the result, applied to regional RCP 8.5 GDP data, all reduced to a 2005=100 value.

The funny thing is that even for Africa there still remains a net positive economic growth relative to 2005, comparable with the unabated world average!

So why limit CO2 emissions?

________

Update 11 June 2017:
link to excel document RCP85_GDP.xls

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Dit bericht werd geplaatst in Analyse. Bookmark de permalink .

2 reacties op RCP8.5 with temperature feedback

  1. Alfons zegt:

    So why limit CO2 emissions?

    Because we gotta do something!
    It’s not the worst solution there is, but is the worst we have!

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